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Overall picture
1. The GEO 6 Regional Assessment for Latin America and the Caribbean identifies the main environmental changes that have been observed in the region since GEO-5 (2012) and GEO LAC 3 (2010); and considers priorities for action within the overall framework of the new 2030 sustainability agenda. At the beginning of the GEO 6 process, governments of LAC and other key stakeholder groups (at the GEO REIN Conference held in Panama City in May 2015) identified a number of regional priorities that helped to shape the focus for assessing suitable response options for the region. These priorities included: impacts from climate change and natural hazards; biodiversity and ecosystem services; natural resources and tourism; economic development and sustainable consumption and production; health and environment; land use, land degradation and land planning; environmental governance; environmental information; and communication and public awareness.
2. The GEO 6 LAC report is structured into four chapters; the first two present the results of the assessment following the Drivers- Pressures-State-Impact-Responses (DPSIR) framework, focusing on 5 major environmental themes (Air, Freshwater, Oceans, Land, and Biodiversity). Chapter 3 evaluates policy progress made in key regional priority areas; reviews particular policy success stories; and assesses the enabling conditions for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals that include the natural environment as an important component/ consideration. Chapter 4 presents a set of regional scenarios, and thereby provides insights into some of the options available to decision-makers as they consider how to move the countries of the region onto more sustainable development pathways. The main findings and key messages from the report are presented as follows:
Key findings
3. LAC is a biologically rich region with a complex tapestry of political, social and natural contrasts. These contrasts are evident in the spectrum of the sizes of countries and economies; in the diversity of geographical and ecological features; and in the manners in which cultures continue to interact with the natural environment. Within the diversity and contrasts however, LAC economies continue to share a persistent, heavy reliance on primary products and natural resources, which account for approximately 50 per cent of all good exports. On the mainland, there has been an increase in the reliance on exports largely driven by extra-regional demands for commodities such as agricultural products (including soybean, coffee and meat) and mineral resources (ores and metals). These transformations are most prominent in South America, where there was an increase in exports from 24 to 40 per cent between 1990 and 2015. Additionally, in 2013, international tourism receipts were 45 per cent of total exports from the Caribbean region, more than twice the amount earned by Mesoamerica, and 9 times greater than South America.
4. Urban areas continue to grow in LAC. Urban population increased by more than 35 million people between 2010 and 2015, and is expected to climb to a total of 567 million persons by 2025. Urbanization is highest in South America, with an estimated 346 million people (83 per cent of the population) living in urban areas in 2015. However, the rate of urbanization is fastest in the Caribbean where 62 per cent of the population resided in urban areas at the start of the millennium, increasing to 70 per cent in 2015 and projected to reach 75 per cent in 2025. In most cases, the concentrations of people as well as the patterns of production associated with urbanization exacerbate environmental degradation.
5. Air quality in cities has declined, and in most cities where data are available, the concentrations of particulate matter and ozone are above the WHO guidelines. This increases the vulnerability of urban dwellers to respiratory diseases; and more than 100 million people in the region live in areas susceptible to air pollution. Moreover, the impacts of cities are not restricted to the urban area. According to the World Water Quality Assessment (2016), it is estimated that 25 million rural people are in contact with polluted surface waters originating from urban areas. This increases health risks and mortality rates in rural areas.
6. LAC currently accounts for only 5 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions; however the region’s contribution to global aggregates is growing, particularly because of demands from the transport and industry sectors. According to World Bank (2015), carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and the manufacture of cement in LAC increased in absolute terms (+14.18 per cent) over the period 2006 to 2011, although their levels as a proportion of GDP have declined. Reducing emissions of greenhouse gases with long residence time in the atmosphere is considered an important challenge in LAC; and contaminants such as black carbon are now a priority because of their radiative forcing action on the climate system.
7. While climate mitigation must be a key component of strategies to combat climate change in LAC, the urgency of strengthening adaptation measures to increase resilience and lower the region’s vulnerability cannot be ignored. The scenarios analysis indicates that LAC is likely to continue to be the region with lowest carbon content of any regional energy mix through to 2050. However, current data are showing that the region’s systems are already under pressure from changes in global climate, and these trends are expected to worsen. Andean glaciers, which provide vital water resources for millions of people, are shrinking; extreme stream flow is affecting communities; and an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events are affecting economies. In the Caribbean Basin, climate change contributes an additional US$1.4 billion to Average Annual Loss based on wind damage alone. In addition, climate change exacerbates many other driving forces and therefore amplifies environmental and related socio-economic impacts.
8. As a result of the range and growing intensity of many driving forces, important ecosystems and ecological processes in the region continue to be affected. Data indicate that although the rate of conversion of natural systems has begun to slow, the overall rate of loss of ecosystems remains high. Forests have shown an overall decrease of 9.4 per cent across the region since 1990, however this regional aggregate masks a noteworthy area of success - in the Caribbean, there has been an increase in the extent of forested area by 43 per cent over the 1990 baseline. Average coral cover is estimated to have declined in the Caribbean from 34.8 per cent to 16.3 per cent between 1970 and 2011. Species continue to be lost across LAC, and what is of particular concern is that where losses are occurring, the rate at which they are happening is, more often than not, increasing. Human-induced water erosion has been reported to affect as many as 2.23 million square kilometres of land in LAC, and river networks transport these sediments and other landbased sources of pollution to the oceans, impacting coastal ecosystems. The World’s Water Quality Assessment (2016) states that about one-quarter of all river stretches in LAC are in the severe pollution class; and the number of rural people coming into contact with polluted surface waters is estimated to be as high as 25 million.
9. The future of the region’s economies, as well as the ability of LAC countries to fight poverty and reverse inequality, depends heavily on the region’s natural capital and the ability of governments to effectively manage it. Although there are noteworthy successes in the region’s efforts to manage its natural asset base (e.g. between 1990 and 2014 the total terrestrial area under protection in the region increased from 8.8 per cent to 23.4 per cent); and LAC has made some important progress in addressing a number of highpriority socio-economic concerns (e.g. the percentage of people living below the poverty line decreased from 31 per cent in 2010 to 26 per cent in 2014; during the past 15 years, the percentage of people living in slums decreased from 29 to 20 per cent; and the number of people with improved access to water and sanitation has increased), the data in this report indicate that progress is likely taking place at the expense of the natural environment in many cases. Whether driven by the demands of a growing population; fuelled by economic factors within or outside of LAC; or facilitated by the absence of effective governance structures, it is generally accepted that patterns of production and consumption within the region are currently unsustainable. These trends need to be addressed with urgency if LAC is to secure the well-being of its growing population.
10. In the context of the persistent challenges presented by the environment-development nexus, the Sustainable Development Goals, approved in September 2015, are considered an important opportunity by the governments of LAC as they go forward. The SDGs and the associated 2030 agenda landscape have a unique, interconnected nature which offers a more robust framework for the region’s governments to identify key policy entry points and responses that will allow very specific actions with associated synergies, and consequently offer multiple benefits for environment and society. In this regard, there are a few important issues that Governments and other stakeholders in LAC may wish to consider.
11. Firstly, Governments will likely need to find innovative solutions to allow for the decoupling of economic growth and resource consumption. This will be critical for attending to many of the persistent anthropogenic activities that are driving environmental change. Current patterns of development, including production and consumption are, in many cases, unsustainable; and with future anticipated increases in population size, it will be necessary to ensure that needs can be met with minimal damage to the natural environment. Reducing dependence on fossil fuels, and diversifying energy sources, will also be important for countries of the region. One such area where this type of thinking would be critical is in the context of urbanization: cities provide the opportunity to improve access to health and education services, cultural facilities, and transportation. Investment in urban planning, such as through the better use of environmentally sound infrastructure and clean transport, can turn the urban challenge into opportunities for sustainable development in LAC.
12. The scenarios indicate that focusing on measures that ensure greater protection of the natural environment will not compromise economies or human well-being in adverse ways. Though some trade-offs may be necessary, issues such as poverty and health may be better managed where emphasis is placed on effectively managing environmental assets. Many governments of the region have engaged in some aspect of ‘green economics’ or green growth’ and there are emerging strategies amongst countries to ensure a coordinated approach. Efforts such as these should be promoted and supported.
13. Governments of the region also likely need to invest in ecosystem-based resilience in order to reduce vulnerability and increase adaptation. Better investments in ecological infrastructure and implementation of measures to reduce pollution and other environmental pressures will help to safeguard some of the region’s precious ecosystems and their services. This is especially important in the context of adapting to a changing climate, which is anticipated to have widespread and adverse impacts in the region.
14. The use of a range of policy support tools, mechanisms and approaches should help to boost regional success in addressing environmental changes and meeting the SDGs. Some of these include education and communication; the development of strategic partnerships especially within the region, but also beyond; innovation; proper monitoring and evaluation; effective implementation of policies and enforcement of laws; and adequate financing. As a core consideration of the sustainability agenda, governments of the region have also recognised the importance of improving the information base upon which environmental decisions are made. Greater investments into research, and building the necessary capacity for collecting and applying data to strengthen the sciencepolicy interface, must therefore be a priority for the region.
15. Governments also have the opportunity to build on progress made in participation with various sectors of society, from the business sector to local and indigenous groups. Civil society has played a key role in the past decades by placing environmental concerns high on the political agenda. The challenge for governments is to integrate these viewpoints in an effective way, moving from informative participation to a more productive dialogue that results in integrated planning and result-based management.
16. Stronger and focused intergovernmental coordination at the regional and sub-regional level will improve governance issues that are of regional priority. Understanding and action in areas such as data and information generation, climate change adaptation, water resource management, environment and health, sustainable production and consumption, and management of biodiversity will be strengthened with regional coordination.
17. The Latin America and the Caribbean region recognises the tremendous merit that is inherent in the overarching theme of GEO-6 ‘Healthy Planet, Healthy People’. At the Twentieth Meeting of the Forum of Ministers of LAC held in March 2016, governments of the region reaffirmed ‘their commitment to comply with that stated in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, with the aim of eradicating poverty, protecting the environment and fostering inclusive, social and economic development in harmony with nature’. In keeping with this, a call was made ‘to take coordinated and accelerated action at all levels to implement the environmental dimension of the 2030 Agenda, recognising the profound connections and the interdependent relationship that it has with the economic and social dimensions of sustainable development, in a balanced comprehensive manner, pursuant to our countries’ policies and circumstances’. In this regard, the region can expect to see shifts in development pathways in the coming years that will put LAC countries further along the road to achieving greater sustainability, thus protecting the region’s natural wealth.
