From NDC to the National Low Carbon Strategy 2050
Presentation made by Ms. Rym Belhaj during the UNEP side event at COP 28 - Catalyzing NDC Investment: From Ambition to Action
Ahead of the official presentation of Morocco's National Low Carbon Strategy 2050, also known as the "quantitative" Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LT-LEDS), during COP 28, UNEP, the UNEP-Copenhagen Climate Center, and their implementing partner Deloitte Morocco shared insights into the support provided to the Kingdom of Morocco. This support, facilitated by the German Federal Government through the International Climate Initiative (IKI) and its NDC Action Project, has played a valuable role in the formulation of Morocco's LT-LEDS and is anticipated to help shape its operationalization moving forward.
In 2021, Morocco published its first “qualitative” LT-LEDS during COP26 in Glasgow, outlining strategic directions for the national economy and society until 2050 and presenting a shared “Morocco Vision 2050”. Building on this foundation, Morocco completed the development of its more comprehensive “quantitative” LT-LEDS in 2023. The detailed strategy specifies medium and long-term milestones, as well as national and sectoral decarbonization trajectories across the seven key sectors of the economy: energy, buildings, industry, transportation, agriculture, forestry, and waste.
Morocco has consistently showcased its commitment to sustainable development. In 2008, it launched the National Energy and Energy Efficiency Plan, delineating ambitious targets for transitioning to renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and hydroelectric power. Initially aiming to generate 8% of primary energy from renewables by 2012, Morocco progressively elevated its ambitions. By 2020, the target had increased to 42%, further revised to an even more ambitious 52% by 2030 at COP 22. Remarkably, within a decade of initiating the energy plan, Morocco achieved a capacity of approximately 2 GW in hydropower and 1 GW in solar power—a significant milestone but only the beginning.
Turning to its NDC, Morocco has been an early pioneer, presenting its first NDC in 2016 and subsequently revising it in 2021. The NDC outlines an unconditional target of 18.3%, with the remaining 27.2% contingent on international financing, with an overall budget envelope of 40 billion USD. Each unconditional measure in the NDC is linked to a national plan or strategic objective integrated into the government program, with thorough assessments of avoided GHGs and financial budgeting for each measure.
Morocco's LT-LEDS is structured around the framework of the NDC which is seen as a pivotal aspect facilitating the evaluation and monitoring of the different LT-LEDS measures and programmes. Notably, the LT-LEDS addresses all seven sectors outlined in the NDC.
The development of LT-LEDS was carried out in three distinct phases:
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LEAP (Low Emissions Analysis Platform) modelling: This phase involved creating energy and emissions scenarios, employing the LEAP modeling tool. The analysis encompassed all greenhouse gas sources and sinks within Morocco's borders, encompassing emissions from both energy and non-energy sources.
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Macroeconomic impact analysis: A thorough analysis of the macroeconomic impacts of the decarbonization scenarios was conducted to assess the benefits and mitigate potential risks associated with the proposed measures.
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Identification of transversal measures: This phase focused on formulating proposed operational measures, incorporating institutional, legislative, and regulatory reforms, along with a governance framework essential for the successful implementation of the LT-LEDS.
An important element of success is that the development of LT-LEDS followed a participatory approach, involving political and technical representation from diverse sectors, regions, cities, private and financial sectors, and regulatory institutions. To guide this inclusive process, Morocco established a robust national governance and coordination mechanism comprising:
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A high-level strategic steering committee
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A technical committee of experts representing public and private stakeholders
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Seven decarbonization sector groups representing all stakeholders (public and private sector, financial entities, civil society, local authorities, academics) across the seven key sectors of the national economy.
The successful implementation of the LT-LEDS hinges on a robust governance framework, a well-defined implementation roadmap and a plan for mobilizing financing. While the NDC Action project will concentrate on supporting the latter two elements going forward, the governance approach outlined in the LT-LEDS transcends national boundaries to embrace territorial governance. This approach aims to facilitate collaboration between national and regional entities and to actively involve regions and cities in shaping and contributing to the overarching goals of the LT-LEDS. Integration of LT-LEDS objectives into public and sectoral strategies, regional and municipal planning and development further ensures alignment with broader developmental initiatives.
Furthermore, the LT-LEDS is linked with policy evaluation and review tools, acknowledging the need for adjustments in response to changing circumstances, given the long-term nature of the strategy.
A recording of the presentation made during the UNEP side event at COP 28 "Catalyzing NDC Investment: From Ambition to Action" can be found here.
