The Global Environment Outlook (GEO) is often referred to as UNEP's flagship environmental assessment. The first publication in 1997 was originally requested by Member States. It is a flagship report because it fulfils the core functions of the organization, which date back to the UN General Assembly resolution that established UNEP in 1972.
GEO is a consultative and participatory process to prepare an independent assessment of the state of the environment, the effectiveness of the policy response to address these environmental challenges, and possible pathways to achieve various internationally agreed environmental goals. The process also builds capacity for conducting integrated environmental assessments and reporting on environmental trends. GEO is also a series of products that informs environmental decision-making not only for governments but also stakeholders such as youth, businesses and local governments, and aims to facilitate the interaction between science and policy.
The diagram shows the different groups engaged in the process, including the UN Environment Secretariat, which convenes the process, through the various advisory bodies, the authors and supporting fellows, and finally to the actors from civil society and business. Throughout the process we expect participants to feel that they have been able to appropriately represent their views and empowered to change the environment because they now have the appropriate knowledge to do so. The assessment report itself is the main product of the process and synthesizes data, information and knowledge about the environment with the aim of informing future decisions and actions on the environment, leading ultimately to positive change.
What is an assessment?
Integrated Environmental Assessments (IEAs) are a powerful tool to help inform the development of evidence-based environmental policy and decision-making. For IEAs to be most useful, they must be performed in a consistent manner. For this reason, UNEP, in collaboration with the International Institute for Sustainable Development, developed a training manual and guide for performing IEAs using the GEO approach.
An assessment involves the social process of undertaking a critical, objective evaluation and analysis of data and information designed to meet a user’s needs as well as support decision-making. It applies scientific knowledge from experts to analyse new and existing information and knowledge, and provide scientifically credible answers to policy-relevant questions (UNEP 2015).
Environmental assessment is the process by which the consequences and effects of natural processes and human activities upon the environment are estimated, evaluated or predicted. Assessments can include within their scope ways to minimize, mitigate or eliminate those effects, and even to compensate for their impact (UNEP 2015).
A good example is UNEP’s flagship assessment reports – the GEO reports. Over the past 20 years these have examined a wealth of data, information and knowledge about the global environment, identified potential policy responses, and provided an outlook for the future. The GEO assessments, and their consultative and collaborative processes, have worked to bridge the gap between science and policy by turning the best available scientific knowledge into information relevant for decision-makers (UNEP 2016).
Typically, assessments that have the most impact seem to be those where findings are not only well communicated but where there is also a plan for acting on those findings. These assessments are often produced using a results-based management approach that includes a communication and outreach plan as part of their design. Follow-up ensures change and progress.
Why do assessments matter?
Assessments validate the importance of the issue being assessed by providing an authoritative analysis of policy-relevant information based on scientific analysis. Assessments also provide a platform for analysing the benefits, costs and risks of policy options. Moreover, assessments, such as the GEO-5 report, provide a fundamental shift in the way environmental issues are analysed, with consideration given to the drivers of global change, rather than pressures on the environment (UNEP 2016).
Assessment frameworks, like the DPSIR (Drivers, Pressure, State, Impact and Responses) framework in GEO-5, are used to identify and evaluate the complex and multidimensional cause-and-effect relationships between society and the environment (UNEP 2016).
Assessments are moving from one-off reports towards continuing assessment processes with regular reporting to provide updates on the changing environmental situation, the effectiveness of policy actions and the policy pathways that can ensure a more sustainable future. Some policy actions might be based on findings from the assessment (enabling the evaluation of effectiveness), but the assessment can also report other policies that influence drivers of systemic change (e.g. perverse subsidies). Continuing assessment generally results in a reduction in the size of reports, because the updates are based on accumulated experience and improved data collection and processing. Indicators are often used to signal the key findings relevant for policy.
An assessment may also need to be tailored according to where the environmental issue is in the policy cycle in order to be focused on the relevant audience. An emerging issue may need to be documented as important, and then evidence assembled to stimulate action to resolve the issue. An integrated assessment will identify drivers and pressures causing the issue, and options for prevention and mitigation. For a mature issue, monitoring of progress or recovery will become the focus of the assessment to demonstrate policy effectiveness.
