The energy sector is central to global mitigation efforts required to bridge the emissions gap in 2030 and reach net-zero emissions by 2050. This will necessitate a complete transformation of the way energy is produced and consumed. To illustrate the scale of the challenge, coal-fired power plants were the single largest contributor to emissions growth in 2018, an increase of 2.9 per cent compared with the previous year and surpassing annual total emissions of 10 GtCO2.
Following a dip in coal consumption in 2020-2021, in part due to COVID-19, emissions are again on the rise also following the crisis in global gas markets which underpins many electricity markets, not just in Europe. More broadly, the clean energy transformation will be challenged by the fact that demand for energy services will grow 30 per cent by 2040, according to the IEA. However, primary energy demand will grow by a lesser rate or fall, depending on the achieved rate of energy efficiency improvement.
The current global energy system is still highly carbon intensive with coal, oil and natural gas meeting 85 per cent of all energy needs. If the necessary transition does not occur, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will continue to increase year-on-year. Technologically speaking, the three pillars of any strategy to decarbonize the power sector are: i) a vast expansion of renewable electricity generation; ii) a smarter and much more flexible electricity grid, and iii) huge increases in the numbers of products and processes that run on electricity (in buildings, transport and industry).
However, the good news is that the basic technologies needed for expanding electrification based on renewable energy technologies already exist and thus represent a relatively “easy win” for substantial short-term reductions of energy-related CO2 emissions. With the NDC Action project we are working with countries to design sub-sector specific investment opportunities, roadmaps and partnership models to transition away from carbon-intensive supply and energy-intensive demand profiles.
