System Analysis and Foresight Briefs

Water as a Circular Economy Resource

Fresh water is crucial for most human activities as well as for the health of all ecosystems and biodiversity. However, easily accessible water in sufficient quantity and quality is limited and is decreasing rapidly.


 

The role of remote sensing and social research in monitoring the environmental impact of refugee/Internally Displaced Persons camps 

Across the world, men, women and children are being displaced by conflict, economic conditions and climate change. Camps are set up to house displaced people as a short-term solution, but in many cases the displaced are unable to return and camps endure for decades.
 

Sustainable production and consumption: Design for disassembly as a circular economy tool

Circular economy practices are increasingly framed as one of the solutions in overcoming the triple planetary crisis. Options, such as design for disassembly, can extend opportunities for developing business models beyond simply creating new products, cutting the carbon footprint of produced goods and therefore limiting greenhouse gas emissions..

Charcoal as a global commodity: is it sustainable?

Charcoal is typically made from trees, is perceived to be a renewable resource, and is used in both low- and middle-income countries as well as high-income countries. There is a difference, however, between “renewable” charcoal that is primarily produced through the farming of trees, and “non-renewable” charcoal, produced through deforestation.

Plastics in agriculture – an environmental challenge

Plastics are used extensively in farming, from plastic coated seeds to mulch film. They also make their way into biosolid fertilizer which is spread on fields. All these products have helped increase crop yields, but there is increasing evidence that degraded plastics are contaminating the soil and impacting biodiversity and soil health.

The shrinking Arctic Sea Ice

The Arctic is a remote and sparsely inhabited area. It is connected to the rest of the world by our climate system, the atmosphere surrounding our Earth and by global ocean currents. .
 

The growing footprint of digitalisation

The digital services that we enjoy are sometimes referred to as “dematerialized technologies”, but is this really the case? Computers, servers and other electronic devices require large amounts of natural resources. The energy to run them emits high amounts of CO2 , and programmed obsolescence and the low percentage of recycling are generating e-waste.

 

People's livelihood and cities - building back greener

The livelihoods of urban residents are shaped by the complex relationship between environmental, social and economic issues affecting inhabitants of urban areas. There is a need for a global reset after the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted urban livelihoods, access to services and socioeconomic opportunities and widened inequalities.

 

Working with plants, soils and water to cool the climate and rehydrate Earth’s landscapes

The continued destruction of forests, the deterioration of soils, the subsequent loss of terrestrial soil water storage and the reduction of water retention in the landscape are disrupting the movement of water in and through the atmosphere. This disruption causes major shifts in precipitation that could lead to less rainfall and more droughts in many areas of the world, increases in regional temperatures and an exacerbation of climate change.

 

Sargassum: Brown tide or golden jewel?

Massive episodic inundations of floating sargassum seaweed have been impacting shorelines on both sides of the tropical Atlantic since 2011. These influxes are now widely considered to be part of the ‘new normal’ facing vulnerable regions in the Wider Caribbean, West Africa and some parts of India.

 

Nature-Based Solutions for Urban Challenges 

Tyre-wear particles are one of the most abundant types of primary microplastics discharged into the environment. During their degradation in the environment, various tyre components are released, including some chemicals with harmful effects to organisms.

 

Desert locusts’ upsurges: A harbinger of emerging climate change-induced crises?

In early 2020, the worst swarms of desert locusts in decades decimated crops and pasture across Eastern Africa and beyond, threatening the food security of the entire subregion. Desert Locusts pose an unprecedented risk to agriculture-based livelihoods and food security in already fragile regions.

 

The need to eliminate lead paint globally

Lead has wide-ranging effects on health, with concomitant personal, societal and economic impacts, and thus, it was identified as one of the 10 chemicals of major public health concern globally (World Health Organization [WHO] 2019). Lead poisoning remains pervasive around the world, causing more than a million deaths a year globally (Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry [ATSDR] 2020;

 

Food loss and waste in the Sustainable Development Goals’ nexus

Food loss and waste, occurring on different stages of food production, distribution and consumption cycles, is now a truly global phenomenon. It results in humanity losing about one-third of total food produce and ca. ¼ of its caloric value.


 

Blockchain Technology and Environmental Sustainability

Blockchain technology is one of many emerging technologies that has the potential to help solve some of the environmental problems that we face today. Uses of blockchain applications for tackling environmental challenges revolve around.

 

Unveiling plastic pollution in oceans

Marine plastic litter pollution is a global concern that threatens seas and the ocean, biodiversity, human health and economic activities such as tourism, fisheries and marine navigation/transportation. Plastics represent approximately 80% of marine litter and result from both land and sea-based human activities.

 

Challenges for the growth of the electric vehicle market 

Electric vehicles (EV) can play an important part in the decarbonisation of the traffic sector. This helps in climate mitigation and positively impacts the air quality of cities, due to reduced emissions such as CO2 , NOx , SO2 and fine particles. In order to become an eco-friendlier product, however, increased efforts must be made to lighten the environmental and social burdens of the mining of rare earth materials, needed especially for the batteries and engines, and its production process.
 

Seagrasses, the forgotten ecosystems

Seagrasses are marine flowering plants, or angiosperms, comprising more than 70 species that form extensive meadows, highly productive and biologically rich habitats. They are among the most extensive of coastal ecosystems with a global areal cover of potentially over 300,000 km2 distributed in 159 countries on six continents (UNEP 2020; Figure 1), except Antarctica (Green and Short 2003). 
 

Growing popularity of alternate food systems for environment and health

Shopping and eating patterns of the global population have changed gradually but drastically since the Second World War. Food production underwent a transformative change meant to cater to very different nutritional needs. However, the change has continued over the last 30 years with globalization giving rise to the modern food system we have today (Popkin 2017; Hawkes and Popkin 2015).
 

Building a digital ecosystem for the planet

Emerging frontier technologies have dramatically boosted the ways in which we can monitor the health of our planet. If we can leverage this information effectively, we will be able to assess and predict risks, increase transparency and accountability in the management of natural resources, inform markets and consumer choice and guide the political action required to counter the environmental risks and crises; and ultimately stand a better chance of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
 

Putting Carbon back where it belongs - the potential of carbon sequestration in the soil

Agricultural practices have the potential to store carbon in the soil and plants, and thus help mitigate climate change, while at the same time increasing soil fertility and water-holding capacity, improving yields and good nutrition, creating drought-tolerant soils, restoring degraded cropland and grasslands and nurturing biodiversity, with positive consequences on local economies. Together these represent an across-the board winning set of solutions.
 

Environment, Climate Change and Security

The key message for this brief is that conflict degrades the environment and environmental degradation can be a driver of conflicts. When climate change accelerates environmental degradation, the risk of conflict increases. This feedback loop is demonstrated in the case of South Sudan. The international community engaged in implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) must understand these interconnections between environment and security in view of the onset of climate change.
 

We are losing the “Little things that run the world”

Insects make up about half of all known living organisms. They play key roles in, pollination, nutrient cycling, food chains of birds and other insectivores, and are one of the pillars of our ecosystems. However, the wide use of insecticides, fragmentation of habitats and climate change are placing multiple threats on them and their populations are under sharp decline. This Foresight Brief explores insect services, threats and solutions to sustain insect populations.
 

Alternatives for the use of glyphosate

This Foresight Brief shows that there are alternative methods which can help to avoid the use of glyphosate as well as other harmful chemicals to kill weeds. The alternative methods offer the benefits of restoring soil fertility and increasing biodiversity in the environment.

 

Revisiting ocean acidification, food security and our earth system

Approximately 40 Gigaton (Gt) of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) is currently released into the atmosphere every year from fossil fuel combustion, cement production and land-use change. This is known as anthropogenic CO2 . A fraction of this, about 23% or 9 Gt CO2 , is taken up by the oceans. Over the industrialised period, the oceans have absorbed CO2 corresponding to 27 % of our accumulated emissions, or 620 Gt CO2 .
 

Faith for Earth 

Typically discussed in the news media as a scientific, environmental or political issue, global warming is being reframed as a moral and spiritual issue by religious leaders – most notably by Pope Francis (Francis 2015). Faith leaders from many other traditions are speaking out on the issue of climate change as well, including Evangelical Christians, Muslims, Episcopalians, and Jews. Interdenominational organizations, such as Interfaith Power & Light, are serving as forums for collaborative efforts on the environment (Roser-Renouf et al., 2016).  

Smoke-haze: A transboundary air pollution issue in Southeast Asia

Air pollution results from the emission of harmful substances into the air. Human-driven activities and, to some extent, natural sources contribute to air pollution. Forest fires, dust storms, volcanic eruptions, pollen dispersal, sea spray, evaporation of organic compounds.

 

Hacking economics for people and planet

As global environmentalism and environmental policy-making has moved into the 21st century, it has not significantly addressed a critical blindspot: the fundamental human system that lies at the root of our ecological and social challenges. As our core interface with Nature, and primary social operating system, omitting to update our ‘economic software’ to match the changing reality of our planetary hardware is akin to deciding to refuse to update your computer or smartphone when prompted and then wondering why the whole system eventually stops running.
 

Emerging Sponge Cities

As global populations converge steadily into cities (UN, 2017), fast growing cities are suffering with intensified hydroclimatic hazards. In China, more cities are facing challenges associated with urban sustainability and urban water issues such as aging/outdated water and wastewater infrastructures, urban flooding and a high frequency of extreme weather (Li et al., 2017; Lv and Zhao, 2013). Among these, urban flooding is one of the most frequent and hazardous disasters that can cause enormous impacts on the economy, environment, city infrastructure and human society (Li et al., 2017). 

Lake Urmia: Signs of recovery

Lake Urmia, located in a mountainous region between the provinces of East and West Azerbaijan in northwestern Iran is one of the country’s most important ecosystems. The lake is fed by rainfall, runoff from the wider catchment area and groundwater.

 

The changing Aral Sea

The Aral Sea was once the world’s fourth largest inland lake. Its hydrological balance is strongly determined by inflows from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers which are fed by glacial melt waters from the southwestern Pamir Mountains in Tajikistan and the Tien Shan Mountains that border Kyrgyzstan and China.
 

Marine Plastics Litter and Microplastics

The primary success of plastics lies in their versatility for all kinds of domestic, commercial and industrial uses such as packaging, agriculture, fisheries, building and construction, electronics, medical, sports and transportation. Plastics are a diverse group of synthetic materials composed of polymers predominantly derived from petrochemicals, such as petroleum and natural gas. Lately, innovative developments in plastics manufacture have allowed them to even challenge traditional materials such as steel in every day usage (PlasticsEurope 2016).

Saving Lake Faguibine

The Faguibine system, located in the Tombouktou region in Mali is a series of five interlinked lakes (Télé, Takara, Gouber, Kamango and Faguibine) (Figure 1). The system is fed from the overflows of the Niger river during the rains; and when full, it was among the largest lakes in West Africa, covering approximately 590 km2 with a total shore line of 213 kilometers (Lakepedia 2017).