As you have just heard from the UN Secretary-General, the heat is very much on when it comes to climate change. Five days ahead of COP26, climate action is still inadequate. The updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and other commitments for 2030 not officially submitted only take another 7.5 per cent beyond what has already been committed, when we needed 55 per cent to stay on the least-cost pathway for 1.5°C and 30 per cent for 2°C. As the report demonstrates — the world would need seven times more ambition to keep on the 1.5 degree track.
This is a yawning gap to close in eight years. Eight years in which we must increase ambition, make new plans, put in place new policies, implement them and ultimately deliver the cuts. We can still get the job done. But only if we get moving now and only if we take advantage of every opportunity.
As the Emissions Gap Report 2021 shows, net-zero pledges from 49 countries plus the EU cover over half of greenhouse gas emissions. These pledges could bring predicted global warming this century down to 2.2°C – still off track, but closer. But they remain ambiguous and inconsistent with 2030 action. This must change.
Another option highlighted in the report is methane, a powerful and short-lived climate warming gas. Over 30 countries have joined a US- and EU-led effort to cut 30 per cent off methane emissions by 2030. Such a target is feasible at low cost, particularly through action in the oil and gas sector. But rapid action on methane, while necessary, doesn’t let the oil and gas industry off the hook. It is in an interim measure on the road to decarbonization.
The report also tells us that the opportunity to use COVID 19 recovery financing for a low-carbon recovery has largely been missed so far. This can also still change. Meanwhile, carbon markets could accelerate action by decreasing mitigation costs – if grounded in clear rules that ensure transactions reflect actual reductions in emissions.
Carbon markets are part of much-needed efforts to provide financing to developing nations, so they can adapt to climate change and follow a low-carbon development pathway. But they can’t be all of it. We need more solidarity, support and, yes, financial backing.
Finally, as previous Emissions Gap Reports have shown, there is huge climate potential in nature-based solutions, renewables, energy efficiency and so much more.
The point is that we know what we need to do. We know how to do it. We know the timeframe in which we need to act. We know the benefits of action, and the consequences of inaction. The case for climate action is, essentially, closed.
So, it is time to get it done. Through stronger commitments that use every option at our disposal. Through policies and action, action, action. We need to go firm. We need to go fast. And we need to start doing it now.
