Ministers, excellencies, colleagues and friends,
As a year in which climate impacts have yet again intensified draws to a close, updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are beginning to come in. We know what these new NDCs must do.
They must promise and deliver huge cuts to greenhouse gas emissions that are additional to current NDCs. If they do not, overshoot of 1.5°C will be inevitable. Under current NDcs, we are heading for a predicted global temperature rise of 2.6 to 2.8°C
And if overshoot becomes inevitable, so do more frequent and more intense climate impacts that rise with ever fraction of a degree. People, economies and nature will be hit with blow after blow. Sustainable development will become an even more distant dream.
It doesn’t have to be that way. Yes, for 1.5°C, the new NDCs must promise to cut 42 per cent off greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57 per cent by 2035. This is a huge ask. But UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2024 tells us it can be done.
The potential is there to cut 31 gigatons of CO2 equivalent – around 52 per cent of 2023 emissions – by 2030. Through more solar and wind power. Through reduced deforestation, increased reforestation and improved forest management. Through methane reduction strategies. Through efficiency and circularity in energy and resource use.
To get there, we need global mobilization, guided by NDCs that set concrete sectoral and national targets with credible transition pathways, policies and defined financing needs. And to succeed, these NDCs must be backed by full transparency, so that we can be sure that nations do what they promise.
The Paris Agreement’s Enhanced Transparency Framework is key to building trust and providing accurate data sets that underpin the preparation of ambitious NDCs.
And the Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs) are vital.
When BTRs give high-quality, consistent climate data, they offer predictability for investment, which supports green finance and investment flows. And when data is measured regularly and shared openly, countries are more likely to meet and even exceed their commitments.
UNEP understands the importance of transparency and is supporting 63 developing countries to prepare their BTRs.
To ensure that countries submit high quality BTRs on time, we need the most senior levels of government to back them. We also need targeted technical assistance, as there are now additional requirements over the previous reporting framework. UNEP is supporting 140 countries on transparency projects and is leading the GEF-financed Global Support Programme, through the Global Transparency Platform and 10 regional networks. From 2023 to 2024, the programme responded to over 100 country requests and held over 70 webinars and regional trainings.
For the sake of collaboration, and increased impact, UNEP welcomes the Baku Transparency Platform as a step forward in mobilizing high-level political support. UNEP looks forward to engaging with the platform.
Finally, we need effective data systems and digital tools to understand collective progress and adjust strategies to close the emissions gap effectively. Unlocking the potential of digital solutions – such as artificial intelligence, digitalization and satellite monitoring – can improve the quality and reliability of current reporting. And this helps to inform policies by identifying which sectors or regions need the most attention and resources.
Ministers,
The updated NDCs are the world’s last chance to aim fully for the 1.5°C target. But, even if made, these promises must be upheld. And they must be shown to be upheld. In these turbulent and anxious times, people need hope. They need to believe a better future is not just possible, but on the way. Transparency is how we can give them that.
