Some parts of the world are burning. Some parts are drowning and people everywhere are struggling to cope and in many cases to survive – particularly and always the poorest and most vulnerable. Against this backdrop of tragedy and rising climate anxiety, nations are preparing new climate pledges for submission early next year.
This 2024 edition of UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report tells us that nations must show a massive increase in ambition in new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), these promises we make to each other and the world each five years. This ambition must be accompanied by rapid delivery, or the Paris Agreement target of holding global warming to 1.5°C by 2100 will be dead within a few years and the target of well below 2°C will take its place in the intensive care unit.
As things stand, current NDCs put the world on track for a global temperature rise of 2.6-2.8°C this century. Even worse, policies currently in place are insufficient to meet even these NDCs. If nothing changes, we are heading for a temperature rise of 3.1°C.
The consequences for people, societies and economies of such extreme warming are unthinkable. And, as we are in Cali, Colombia, for the biodiversity COP16, we must remember that it would be impossible to meet the goals of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework when raging wildfires, ruinous storms and creeping desertification and land degradation are devastating species, ecosystems and habitats.
Climate crunch time is here.
The new NDCs and their implementation must collectively cut 42 per cent off greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 to get on a least-cost pathway for 1.5°C. Looking out to 2035, emissions must fall by 57 per cent. In annual terms, we need to shave 7.5 per cent off emissions every year until 2035, a figure that will grow with each year of inaction.
This is a gargantuan task that requires global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before. But it does, for the moment at least, remain technically possible. Nations can deliver the cuts needed by investing heavily in solar and wind energy, in forests, in reforming the buildings, transport and industry sectors, and more – all backed by a whole-of-government approach, a new global financial architecture and strong private sector action. The G20, particularly the members that dominate emissions, need to do the heavy lifting.
Limiting warming to 1.5°C is one of the greatest asks of the modern era. We may not make it, but the only certain path to failure is not trying. And we must remember that we are operating on a sliding scale of disruption. 1.5 is better than 1.6 is better than 1.7. Every fraction of a degree matters in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved and the ability to rapidly bring down any temperature overshoot.
So, I urge everyone, no more hot air, please. Use COP29 next month to increase action now, set the stage for dramatically stronger NDCs that target 1.5°C, and then go all out to deliver the necessary emissions cuts by 2030, by 2035 and beyond until net-zero is achieved.
