On February 20th 2017, the Government of South Sudan, the world’s newest nation, declared famine, becoming the first country to do so since 2012. According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) results, some 100,000 people may die from starvation, while a further 1 million are on the brink of famine.
The total number of people who are suffering from food insecurity is expected to rise to 5.5 million - about half of South Sudan’s population - at the height of the lean season in July if nothing is done to curb the severity and spread of the food crisis.
Though one of the main causes of the famine in South Sudan is man-made conflict, some areas in the eastern part of the country are facing food security issues from prolonged droughts, which are believed to be due to climate change. South Sudan is witnessing changes in the frequency and intensity of rainfall and a rise in temperatures. Over the past 30 years, the country has been among the most rapidly warming areas on the globe, with temperatures increasing as much as 0.4°C per decade. This warming, which is two and a half times greater than global warming, is making “normal” years drier. While rainfall has decreased by 10-20 %, temperatures have increased by more than 1oC since the mid-1970s.
The prolonged droughts are causing food crises, loss of livestock, internal displacement and migration to neighbouring countries. More than 1 million children are estimated to be acutely malnourished across South Sudan. Climate change in the region has led to widespread livestock deaths. Humanitarian needs have tripled in parts of the region as compared to 2015.
The recently launched NAPA (National Adaptation Programme of Action) to climate change, prepared by the South Sudan Government with the technical support of UN Environment clearly describes these climatic trends. It spells out how the country is experiencing substantially warmer and drier weather, leading to more droughts. According to the national Ministry of Environment and Forestry, rainfall is more erratic, and both its frequency and intensity have changed in recent years. Due to this change, farmers are not able to tell when to plant.
According to the country’s previous Environment Minister, Deng Deng Hoc Yai, climate change is exacerbating the civil war in South Sudan. Deutsche Welle reported that many experts believe the changing climate is partly responsible for South Sudan’s three-year old internal armed conflict. Drought is putting pressure on resources, and fanning the flames of the three-year-old civil war.
In addition to droughts, flood frequency has also increased in recent decades in parts of South Sudan. For example, floods that used to occur in intervals of five to 10 years have been happening almost every year since 2011. Larger areas are being affected by droughts and flooding is now more serious.
BROADER IMPACTS:
Increased pressure on wildlife poaching and loss of biodiversity: The man-made conflict and the rising food crisis is causing pressure on biodiversity, as both poaching and illegal wildlife trading have increased. In March 2017, wildlife authorities confiscated large quantities of bush meat in Aweil. There are accounts of people poaching due to the lack of food. One poacher, who preferred to remain anonymous, told local radio that he and his friend went into the bush to kill animals because their living conditions had got so bad.
Increased human conflict: Reduced access to water and loss of grazing land has triggered fighting between pastoralist communities and farmers. Such conflicts could increase due to climate change.
Increased deforestation: There is a greater pressure on South Sudan’s remaining forests as commercial charcoal production and logging are seen as alternative sources of income.
Increased human displacement and migration: Due to droughts, people are being internally displaced or are migrating to neighbouring countries. Human displacement puts further pressure on scarce natural resources.
Water scarcity: Major rivers and small streams in parts of South Sudan are drying up.
Humanitarian response: Droughts in conflict areas have affected the humanitarian response, with looting of warehouses, compounds, food storage areas and properties.
Increased land degradation and desertification: If present rainfall trends continue in South Sudan, by 2025 the drying impacts will likely reach to most parts of the country. A 1°C increase in temperature would mean another 10-20% reduction in rainfall.
Vulnerability: More than 90 percent of South Sudan’s population is dependent on rain-fed agriculture and has limited capacity to cope with variable and extreme climates. Any changes in climatic condition could have a direct impact on crop yields, livelihoods, displacement, health and education.
About UN Environment in South Sudan
UN Environment in South Sudan is working to support communities and government entities in awareness raising, capacity enhancement and building resilience to withstand climate change shocks such as floods and droughts through ecosystem based climate change adaptation, early warning systems, climate smart agriculture and reforestation interventions.
