While Africa has contributed least – just 2-3 per cent – to global emissions, it is the most vulnerable to climate change. With low levels of socioeconomic development, many communities cannot afford the goods and services they need to buffer against the worst impacts of climate change. This is the core of Africa’s disproportionate vulnerability.
However, while climate change presents challenges, it may also serve as a catalyst for positive change.
UNEP’s Adaptation Gap Report 2020 showed that increasing ambition towards the 2°C goal could keep losses in annual economic growth due to climate change at 1.6 per cent in comparison to losses of 2.2 per cent at the 3.2°C trajectory. It called for investments in nature-based solutions to drive climate change adaptation, noting that investing US$1.8 trillion in adaptation measures would bring a return of $7.1 trillion in avoided costs and other benefits.
In the meantime, Emissions Gap Report 2020 found that unless we ramp up efforts for a low-carbon recovery, the world is expected to exceed 3.2°C warming this century, far beyond the Paris agreement goals of limiting global warming to 2℃ and ideally, 1.5℃.
A 1.5℃ warming scenario is the threshold set by the Paris Agreement as best insurance against devastating climate change impacts for Africa. Among them is a 75 per cent shrinkage of economic productivity in developing countries - the majority of which are in Africa. Currently, one in three Africans – the equivalent of up to 422 million people - lives in poverty. Two hundred and fifty-seven million people (more than 70 per cent of the world’s poorest) go to bed hungry. While climate change is global, the poor are disproportionately vulnerable to its effects since they lack the resources to quickly recover.
Bridging Adaptation Implementation Gaps in Africa
According to the Adaptation Gap Report, annual adaptation costs in developing countries are estimated at US$70 billion. This figure is expected to reach US$140-300 billion in 2030 and US$280-500 billion in 2050, even if global warming is kept below 2°C. For Africa alone, this means $7-15 billion per year for adaptation and could amount to $50 billion per year in 2050 – even in the most optimistic scenario and excluding the costs of transition to clean energy. Africa therefore needs huge levels of investment to drive adaptation.
Investing in adaptation is a sound economic decision and can be used as a vehicle for inclusive development. Efforts to drive adaptation must align with socioeconomic growth to build resilient populations. Most ministries, governments and sectors aim to build resilience– to create livelihoods for citizens, youth employment, and a globally competitive economy. Investing in adaptation is a sound economic decision and directly contributes to the realisation of of the SDGs.
At the same time, the total investments required for implementation of ratified NDCs across Africa (conditional and unconditional) exceeds $2.5 trillion, approaching $3 trillion. Actualising the SDGs, requires at least $1.2 trillion annually. This is a clear call for alternative financing models – and that call is repeated in the ground-breaking Addis Ababa Action Agenda on Sustainable Financing, the UNEP inquiry into a more sustainable financing model for the future, and the UNEP Africa Adaptation Gap Reports.
Sustainable finance for development requires embracing innovative approaches that balance public and private, domestic, and international sources. Africa will also need to shift focus from socially driven financing to investment financing, where returns transcend the traditional social benefits to include environmental benefits and financial dividends, which are critical for longevity.
Policy Implications to drive adaptation implementation in Africa
Adaptation implementation in Africa should align with “green pandemic recovery”, which channels fiscal and other investments towards lowering emissions. The following principles should be leveraged in adaptation implementation in Africa:
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Leverage mitigation to power adaptation
Nature based solutions on their own have led to successes across the continent. But to progress to broader solutions that underpin a green pandemic recovery, what is produced using nature-based approaches (for example, agro-produce grown using biofertilizer) must be value added. The value addition process should be designed in a way that it does not exacerbate emissions or climate change. To this end, clean energy should be used to power value-addition.
It is in value addition that wealth opportunities are created. Value addition does not need to start on a large or sophisticated scale - local solutions, accessible to the informal sector, work best.
For example, providing solar dryers to farmers in local markets enables them to dehydrate and preserve harvest that isn’t sold immediately, for resale at a time when demand is high again. This solution has proven to not only cut post-harvest losses but can increase earning up to 30 times. When we consider the $48 billion worth of post-harvest losses in Africa, such a solution could be scaled up enormously.
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Shift from socially-driven financing to investment financing
Africa already contributes 20 per cent of its annual adaptation needs estimated at $15 billion – meaning that up to $3 billion of adaptation costs are financed locally. As we ask how the continent can raise the 80 per cent deficit, we must also consider how the 20 per cent can be invested to maximise environmental, social and economic returns. One option is to invest in profitable climate-action enterprise opportunities.
The move from social to investment and enterprise financing is already under way but needs to be ramped up. Africa can build upon existing structures for risk sharing and diversification, such as communal cooperatives. Domestic adaptation financing could be invested in local, accessible and market-driven cooperatives and micro-finance institutions, to catalyze affordable lending to climate-action enterprises that provide socioeconomic co-benefits.
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Policy coherence and harmonisation to bridge adaptation implementation gaps
In implementing the NDCs, while the Ministry of Environment is responsible for reporting progress, much of the actual work is done by other line ministries, such as agriculture, energy, lands, transport, trade. Thus, adaptation implementation policies cannot be left to the environment ministry alone. Input from all leading productive line ministries and sectors is critical. While these policies already exist, they need to be implemented in a cascade to move the needle of adaptation at the operational level.
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Prioritising Human Capital
Investing in youth by building their capacities to help them contribute to adaptation enterprises that upscale nature-based solutions is a formidable strategy. UNEP and partners are already practicing this model thorough ‘Innovative Volunteerism’ to engage youth under UNEP EBAFOSA framework.
Conclusion
“A bridge is repaired only when someone falls into the water”.
Africa’s high vulnerability coupled with astronomical adaptation financing gap, send a very clear message – Africa is already in the deep waters. But adaptation offers a way out.
For more information, contact:
Richard Munang, UN Environment Programme’s Climate Change Coordinator for Africa
Mohamed Atani, Head of Communication and Outreach, UN Environment Programme, Africa Office - Tel: +254 (0) 727531253
