The UNEP Scenario Building Workshop took place in Nairobi, Kenya, from 21 to 22 June 2023. The aim of the workshop was to develop a set of contextual narratives of “alternative futures” — or storylines of how the future might unfold. The scenarios will be used as a platform and foresight tool to engage in systemic reflections and the exploration of potential challenges, opportunities, and options for action.
These contextual scenarios were developed using a widely accepted methodology [1] in which relevant external factors were elicited via a survey aimed at UNEP’s Senior Management Team (SMT) and the UNEP Foresight Expert Panel. This was followed by an online brainstorming session with a group of multidisciplinary internal staff and external participants that are involved in relevant UNEP processes. The two surveys, the online brainstorm material and a baseline report summarizing all relevant UNEP publications subsequently served as input for the two-day scenario workshop where relevant factors were discussed and condensed into a list of 13. For each of these 13 factors the range of uncertainty was identified to reflect the spectrum of plausible outcomes by the year 2050.
The workshop participants then assessed the potential impact and level of uncertainty of each of these factors, and jointly selected the combination which formed the key uncertainties. With these key uncertainties, a scenario framework was constructed, against which four relevant, insightful and yet plausible scenarios were constructed. Following two rounds of discussion, the participants imagined how each of the 13 factors could play out over the 2023 to 2050 period within the four emerging scenarios.
[1] For more on the methodology see: Ruijter, P. de. 2014, Scenario Based Strategy: Navigate the future, Gower Publishing
